Achieving the Millennium Development Goals by Mark McGillivray (eds.)

By Mark McGillivray (eds.)

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To claim, for instance, that the MDGs have succeeded in eradicating extreme poverty and hunger when at the same time these conditions persist across an entire region or in a number of countries would appear to be inconsistent with the spirit of the Millennium Declaration. Put differently, relying purely on global aggregates seems inconsistent with the principles on which the MDGs are founded and would appear to be reflecting somewhat shaky ethical grounds. Volume structure and contents Achieving the Millennium Development Goals consists of seven more chapters, each of which examines or uses empirical research methods.

Some indicators have risen in recent years at a far greater rate than their historical precedent – primary enrolment being the most obvious case. In these cases, if naïve projections are based on very recent trends, then such forecasts may be superior to those which are model-based. But naïve projections will underestimate future growth if the period used to calculate expected growth includes many years prior to any recent expansion. The main point is that policy can make a difference to the achievement of goals – as shown by the experience of countries that do not follow the expected outcome–income trajectory (see World Bank 2005b for a discussion of Bangladesh, which has been remarkably successful in reducing fertility and mortality faster than income growth would suggest).

Indeed, the rate of reduction in Africa has been insufficient to keep up with population growth, so the number of deaths is continuing to climb. As a result, Africa’s share of under-5 deaths will continue to grow. In the case of infant deaths this trend represents a dramatic reversal. 7 Access to water in 2015 Access to water (% of population) Share of total number Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total globally Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and N. Africa Europe and Central Asia East Asia and Pacific South Asia L.

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